The current example is the first of several, that will focus on extending a cycle/3 beyond 2 to 3 days, to enhance profit accumulation and produce higher yields out of a longer trend duration.

PARAMETERS TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN A CYCLE/3 & A CYCLE/4

A Cycle/3 trend is confirmed as dual Cci (100) momentum is above (>)100 on 1&4Hrs. In the current example (USD/CHF), the confluence zone where this condition applies is marked on Chart/A

Chart/A2 marks the market condition before breakout into a Cycle/3 trend. Here momentum had been divergent between 1&4HR frames. Cci (100) Momentum ran <0 into negative readings on 1HR, (See Chart/A2), but had sustained > zero, and remained positive on 4HRs. - See Chart/A3 

As already noted in past examples, this marks overall continuation in the trend, as  momentum corrects only on the 1HR, but does not fall bellow zero <0, on the 4HR frame. (See Chart/A3 below, again).

Such a condition will be termed a Cycle/4.

Chart/A4 marks the market condition after the Cycle/3 trend had completed. Momentum again diverges between 1&4HR frames. Cci (100) Momentum ran <100 (below overbought) on 1HR, but had sustained > zero, and remained positive on 4HRs. 

This again marks overall trend continuation, as on the 4HR frame momentum does not fall bellow zero <0, (remains positive). (See Chart/A5).

Because the divergence between 1HR momentum & 4HR momentum is always covered by continuation of positive momentum on the 4HR, the current example is actually a broader higher degree Cycle/3 Extension. 

On Chart/B all such 1HR retractions are shaded on the 4HR frame and get labeled clearly as Cycle/4 retractions in a continuous trend on the 4HR. 

Chart/B confirms the strong continuous positive momentum on the 4HR throught out all 1HR retractions, resulting in a trend duration > 21 days. This should be taken advantage off, and traded for its full duration using a Cycle/3 strategy to maximize opportunity - The full duration of the trend ~ Trade, is marked by the yellow extending arrow on the momentum of Chart/B below.

 

ANATOMY OF A CYCLE/4

 It now suffices to delve deeper into a Cycle/4 composition.

 Any Cycle/3 (Trend) is made up of two extensions at least. (Elliot).

1-      An internal wave-3

2-      An internal wave-5

3-      A wave-4 consolidation wedged in between both

4-      For a wave-4 to appear and discontinue a trend between a Wave-3 & 5, momentum must have discontinued its confluence between 1&4HR. (Momentum divergence).

5-      It follows that the start of momentum divergence must commence by the smaller 1HR momentum No longer feeding into the 4HR direction.

Recall that during momentum confluence between 1&4HR frames, and I am quoting from the Cycle/3 strategy Abstract:-

"the market is moving in a 5:3 structural advance. Any trades taken at an internal 15min pivot support will trend higher to the next pivot resistance, to complete a 5-swing move. Corrections, being limited to 3-swings, will not break far enough below the pivot support out of which the move originated, to reach the next pivot support below, And so will not stop out a trader whose stop loss is placed two pivot supports (5-swings) below his entry pivot ".

By default, if the 1HR momentum is out of synchrony  with the 4HR, but momentum on the next higher degree cycles is in confluence, (momentum confluence between the higher 4HR & Day frames), then the same structural cycle condition holds, but simply applied at wider pivot levels running on the higher 1HR frame :-

In essence, taken one step to a higher cycle frame, the following holds:-

"the market is - Still - moving in a 5:3 structural advance. Any trades taken at an internal 1HR pivot support on an uptrend will trend higher to the next pivot resistance, to complete a 5-swing move - Because the trend is still set by the 4HR X day frames -. Corrections, being limited to 3-swings, will not break far enough below the pivot support out of which the move originated, to reach the next pivot support below. And so will not stop out a trader whose stop loss is placed two pivot supports (5-swings) below his entry pivot on the 1HR frame ".

 The above premise is valid as long as :-

1-      Cycle/4 doesn't turn into a higher degree reversal. (Momentum on the 4HR frame reverses into confluence with momentum running on the 1HR frame, (instead of continuing the run in divergence with it).

2-     Momentum on higher degree frames (Day) or even (8-HR) is running in trending confluence with momentum on the 4HR.

 

Chart/D shows that in our current example (USD/CHF), the Daily frame was trending in confluence with 4HR momentum, and caused the divergence in momentum on the 1HR frame, to be short lived, and therefore DID NOT impact a reversal on the 4HR. (See green shade on Chart/D). 

Chart/D also confirms that it is only when the 4HR momentum fell below zero, and ran into confluence with the 1HR momentum, would the trader begin to consider a higher degree trend reversal. 

Note that hedges get opened to protect Cycle/3 longs, once the fixed risk measure on the 15-min frame gets violated. In this example the trader gets the opportunity to close out remaining strategy longs on a bounce into a double head formation. And similarly close out the hedge shorts on a fall back to the neckline. 

The trader is able to exit the Cycle/3 strategy gracefully - without losses in this manner.

TRADING A CYCLE/4

The market must be trending in a Cycle/3 or had broken out into a Cycle/3 before moving to a Cycle/4 condition.

PARAMETERS TO CLASSIFY CYCLE/4

Momentum conditions of a Cycle/4 change from these of a Cycle/3 to become:-

The Cci(100) < 0 on 1HR. Cci(100) > 0 on 4HR. Cci(100) at or > overbought on day. A Cycle/4 retraction can then be identified in a Cycle/3 trend extension.

On Chart/E2, note retractions in 1HR Cci momentum are always contained by a positive Cci momentum plot on the 4HR. Cci. The momentum on the day also happens to be running > OB. A typical Cycle/4 trend is identified, that is fluctuating between Cycle/3 & Cycle/5 extensions- See Chart/E2. Only when momentum begins to reverse into –ve readings on the 4HR frame, is the overall trending Cycle/3 come to an end.

 3. Chart/E3, shows that because a Cycle/4 erupts pending a Cycle/3 trend, the trader would be usually carrying a trending Cycle/3 position, during an adverse Cycle/4 breakout. The Cycle/4 sharp reversal will trigger open the trade's protective hedges. As momentum on the 4HR doesn't fall into –ve readings, the trade is confirmed in continuation, and the trader can safely & immediately close out all hedges, and carry on holding his original positions. – See Chart E3. / Condition 4B 

  

ENTRIES & PROFITS (CYCLE/4).

CYCLE /4 VOLATILITY LEVELS:-

A Cycle/3 is usually contained @ (Pivot-P) on the 15-min frame & (Resistance-R1) on the 1HR frame, for a bull Trend.

A Cycle/4 is usually contained @ lower Support-S1 on the 15-min frame, and Pivot-P on the 1HR frame for a bull Trend. – See Chart/F

Accordingly, entries are made at Pivot –P, and in between Pivot –P, and Support – S1 on the 1HR frame when trading a Cycle/4 from a bullish conception. Take profits are 1- upper pivot higher (usually Resistance-R1, sometimes uder less volatile conditions = the Pivot). Hedges at 1- lower pivot, at Support –S1. When the entries are made between Pivot-P & Support-S1, the hedges are placed between Support-S1, and lower Support-S2. – See Chart/F

On Chart/F entry pivot zones are shown in yellow. Hedges in red shades. And Take profits in green shades.

A Cycle/4 is much less volatile than a Cycle/3. And therefore arraying breakout entries and take profits at higher internal pivot & resistance levels, will not be suitable here.

Actual entries are made an a momentum reversal from below oversold levels, to above oversold levels at the specified (P), (S1), or even (S2) levels on the 1HR Chart. This is in case of a consolidation in a bull trend of course. Such entries are clearly outlined on Chart/F. Accordingly, entries in this manner are taken and managed as shown on Chart/F2.

1-      Trader closes out auto opened protective hedge, as it is deemed not needed due to the trend being sustained by positive 4HR & Day momentum.

2-     Once –ve momentum begins to show the trader recognized the market is classified as a Cycle/4 consolidation in a Cycle/3 extension, and amends trade strategy accordingly. Entry at (2) is made once momentum summersaults back above oversold level at (2). Entry taken around hourly pivot. Take profit at resistance – R1 the following day.

3-     Entry is taken at (3) on a similar trigger, once momentum summersaults above oversold. Entry level at S1. Target the Pivot (P).

4-     Note that in both trades (2) & (3), a Cycle/3 breakouts. The trader is able to take advantage of it while engaged in a Cycle/4, by leaving the usual array of orders to trade a Cycle/3 breakout, and take profits at the next internal pivot levels on a daily basis. The market action is very fast in such cases, and the best opportunity is taken out of volatility in this manner.

5-      If a hedge gets opened at the top of Cycle/3 that evolved out of trade (3), the trader neutralizes the hedge again because of the continuous positive momentum on the 4HR & Day frame. Traders can stand out such hedges, by not taking longs at R2 levels when trading a Cycle/3. If the hedge is not opened in the 1^st place, trader does trade (4) , in same manner, and on the same Cycle/4 trigger, and also the Cycle/3 that evolved pending trade (4). 

      Chart/F2, shows the yields generated out of Cycle/4 trades in the current example. 3 Trades where executed over a 21 day duration  ~ 1 trade / week . The win rate was 100%. 

      Chart/G shows typical entries & take profits for a Cycle/3 implementation for one segment in the current example. The trader would have stood down once 1HR momentum diverged from 4 HR momentum. As the chart/G shows, failure to trade a Cycle/4 addition to a Cycle/3, dramatically decreases Trend duration, profit generation, and  yields.

ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT & COMPOUNDING

Trade money management is shown on the extended trade management matrix above.

The 1^st segment of the table displays yields for trading a Cycle/3. Over a 21 day duration, only 6 days registered Cycle/3s, with 2 trades / day.

 The 2^nd segment of the table displays yields for trading a Cycle/4.  Over a 21 day period, only 3 trades where generated, with 1 trade / Wk.

The 3^rd segment displays a composite of both Cycle/3 & Cycle/4 over a 21 day period. This is a statistical composite of both on an average of 1.5 trades / day, at 21 days for a Cycle/3+4 trend trade duration of 15 days (3 trading wks). The resulting yield is very close to an aggregate total of the actual yields generated individually for each of Cycle/3 & Cycle/4. This proves such statistical averages (in terms of data input), accurate to forward engineer yield projections on.

Forward engineering the yield curve onward, supposed the trend duration extends into a wave-5, the by simply altering the trend duration to 20 days (4 trade wks.) The overall adjusted yield is arrived at in the 4^th segment of the table …, and so on for extended trend duration of 25 days, 30 days, … etc. The focus always begin to project an accurate duration of the trend's yields going forward on positive dual momentum confirmations, effectively and realistically catching trending opportunities in a measurable manner.

CONCLUSION

Cycles Trend by Character. Meaning they recur regularly in pulses, in non-regular distorted time intervals, and by virtue of this characteristic are tradable. The element of irregularity is inserted by the fundamentals driving the price/time plot, which leads to abrupt changes.

Because daily fundamentals (news) run in a constant flux, we will stand out of the short term cycles altogether. (these are successfully traded by computer generated algorithms). The focus here is on constantly trading a cycle which is impacted by a “monthly” / long term fundamental. This fundamental should be No secret to anyone, and all, including ourselves are already “living it”, and should be acutely aware of it.

Because of this “reality”, this secular - monthly cycle is constantly trending in a “stable state”, of large to relatively large frequency & periodicity. - Cycle/4.

Whenever the secular’s cycle primary motive = reason for being in existence, translates to  suddenly overshadow or impact & upset the daily short term news, the monthly cycle accelerates in a strong pitch that is related to its large cycle pulse. This resonates and reverberates in a strong trend breakout, visible on the short term daily cycles. – A Cycle/3

Why aren’t the majority of  short term traders and retailers concerned with trading a secular cycle. Because its relatively large to (very large) cycle pulse, is not visually clear, and even if it were, it becomes impractical for traders to simply wait for it to come out of pause and into its next pulse acceleration – Cycle/4 again.

For the longer term Cycle to come out of pause and into pulse acceleration, Two internal cycles had become fundamentally and suddenly impacted by its prime cause for existence, and so abruptly ended their internal pulses, and added their measures (amplitudes) as a directional vector into that of the long term cycle. This is called Cycle Confluence. An early measure of this action becomes visually clear in a dual momentum “vector” confluence on the 1 & 4HR cycles. This is essentially what a Cycle/3 is trading. Another dual confluence of lasting periodicity is a confluence between 4HR & Day Cycles, which is what a Cycle/4 is trading.

Moving on – Coming examples will all be focused on integrally trading a Secular Cycle. = Cycle/3+4

High Risk Investment Warning: 

Financial products are traded on margin, and carry an extremely high degree of risk. It is very possible to lose all your capital trading them. Financial Products such CFDs (Contracts for Price Difference) are considered some of the most volatile and risky of financial assets, and as such will NOT be suitable for everyone to trade. More importantly, CFDs are derivative products of, / (and are) impacted by several financial issues and asset classes. Several complex fundamentals become intertwined. And it becomes very hard, even for professionals to assess and acutely understand ALL the risks involved. Under volatile market conditions, Losses could well exceed the account’s initial deposits. Please think very carefully whether such trading portfolios' suit you. Take into consideration all of your relevant circumstances and personal resources, and DO NOT POST your entire account balance to meet margin requirements. Clients can minimize their level of risk exposure by requesting a change in leverage limits. For more information on this please refer to your broker’s Risk Disclosure. Further, do not wavier seeking independent expert and legal advice on trading issues and their suitability to yr geographical location. 

DISCLAIMER:-   

TRADER PSYCHOLOGY - PLEASE TAKE VERY SERIOUSLY

PLEASE CONSIDER THIS WARNING VERY CAREFULLY EVERY TIME YOU READ & STUDY THIS DOCUMENT

The information and illustrated examples elaborated on this document, are for educational purposes only. It should not be assumed that methods, techniques, or indicators presented will always be profitable, and will NOT result in losses. Past results are not a typical setting for future ones. The contents of this document solely represent the publisher’s, experience and findings.

ANY & ALL indication(s) given here have the following inherent limitations:-

1- Trading Analysis is based on the benefit of hindsight, mistakes are seen beforehand & filtered out. Before making decisions based on such analysis, the reader must acutely scrutinize and conduct all possible due diligence, including- but not limited to- seeking independent expert advise.

2- Representation that any account will or likely achieve profits should be diligently and responsibly downplayed . In reality, factors such as the fear of losing, generate neural tensions. These cause closing profitable positions prematurely during gains, and cloud a traders’ judgment during losses, causing the holding of losses, and crippling draw downs. This behavior is typical when users change from a demonstration account to a real one. And as a fact is never forcefully documented by the majority of  brokers.

3- Readers are advised to take seriously the psychology involved in the behavioral aspects associated with taking  high trading risks. Any trade made, at some point, will get tested, the trader will experience losses and question his motives for the trade. If the trade is over leveraged, it will lead to high exposure, and severe draw downs. The trader will be frightened, and despair, dumping the position, under severe stresses, at the very worst time. Volatility leads to rash impulsive decisions. And decisions become irrationally driven by fears, the more volatile a portfolio becomes. Hence, it is said that trading is NOT for everyone.

4- Because of the above, only the reader carries the sole responsibility for all the businesses or investments he /she will be carrying  out or conducting in his / her name(s), regardless of using ideas or material they viewed  / copied / read here or any where else. The publisher(s) will not be held liable in any capacity over losses incurred by readers, stemming from their own actions.

5- Finally, Due to all above listed & more, a consensus of over 70% of retail Forex traders lose money trading or barely break even.

1- CONFIRMING TREND DURATION

A trader’s success in trading a Secular cycle/3+4 Extension is directly related to utilizing max opportunity out of the longer term 4-HR cycle and its projected duration.

1- Individual Cycle recognition in terms of wave length (time) and amplitude (profit projections), become a key METRIC , in choosing the issues to prioritize investing a 1x4HR strategy in, and are confirmed out of the higher degree daily frame.

2- Trade efficiency through increasing the number of trade entries that can be profitably recurred in a 4-HR trend is also key to profit accumulation. This METRIC directly relates to trading retractions in the 1HR Cycle, and immediately standing out of Higher reversals once they ensue in THE 4HR MOMENTUM CYCLE. (See Past Example/3). 

A 4-HR TREND is what the strategy is acutely trading, once it reverses, the trader must be out. 

Both of these measures will be our acute focus in the coming example.

The Current example focuses on how to trade only trending issues, even when such issues are in a dormant mode, but expected to breakout. Such trends will be termed here "Secular Trends". Secular Trends usually extend into 9 Month (3 Quarters).

Under the abstract section (beginning article), one of the primary ten nets for strategy/3 trend trades was :- that momentum on the daily frame must be predominantly trending.  Chart/A is a daily for the Us Tech-100, (NASDAQ), and shows a predominant bear trend on the daily.

At zone(A), due to the continuous negative momentum plot, the trader recognizes a secular bear trend extension on the daily chart. And would attempt to get into it & hold to its maximum duration. As shown on chart-A, that trend lasted for 21 days. To enter into that trend, the trader would simply take a 1X4HR trigger and continually implement a Cycle/3 strategy trading it until a longer term target at an (S2) support pivot on the 4 HR frames is reached.

Chart/B shows the moves that would have been traded using a Cycle/3 strategy (as per past examples), by simply trading 1x4HR triggers inside of the larger secular trend. The trend duration for such moves was typically 3-days (red down trending arrows on Chart/B). The strategy was effective because it allows the trader to go out of the market immediately on a 1HR X 15 Min adverse trigger, by hedging. One such 1Hr X 15 Min trigger is shown on Chart/B.

Had it not been for the adverse 1HR x 15min positive trigger in between, the whole duration for the trend would become 45 days. Had traders been implementing a Cycle/3+4 strategy for the full duration, They would certainly increase yields multifold, even with an adverse 1HR X 15min positive trigger in between the trend duration. 

Our current example will show how to treat such adverse volatility to a trending move, and trade an amended / fine-tuned cycle/3+4 strategy throughout the overall higher degree Trend, to maximize trend duration & yields.

TRADE IMPLEMENTATION – EXTENDING A CYCLE/3

On Chart/C the eruption of a positive 1x4Hr Momentum trigger, (green arrow on Chart/C), marks the end of the 1st leg of the extending down trend. 

At this point a typical Cycle/3 trader, should be able to hedge his way out of the “remaining” short entries, and reverse into longs, and implement a Cycle/3 strategy long. This implementation has been shown in previous examples, and is not of interest to us here.

It is after completion of the bullish correction, labeled -4(red) altogether, and as price and momentum become directionless (See Chart/C), that the trader becomes indecisive, and apprehensive until another 1x4HR cycle/3 trigger erupts. (Red arrow marking bear trend trigger at (–b) on Chart/C)

Once such a 1x4HR bearish trigger erupts, the trader is confirmed to start trading  the bearish direction using a Cycle/3 strategy.

The trader would be now tempted, to trade the whole move down for the possible coming 45-day duration, similar to the past down trend in wave/3- red, using a Cycle/3 methodology - (See Chart/B) . On Chart/C such a move turned out to last only 21 days, as it turned out to be an identical fractal of the previous "Wave-3-red" but labeled in (Wave-5-red). Never the less, the move is certainly worth continually trading and allocating a specific percentage of  the trader's account in.

TRADE IMPLEMENTATION

Trade implementation starts, once a 1HRx4HR bear trigger erupts close to the oversold level on the daily chart at (-b red). See Chart/C.

Traders could be tempted to begin trading on a 1HR x 15Min bear trigger. This is ill advised. Usually, a level (1) would not have been taken out yet on such a dual tigger, and the market can still bounce out of a Level(1) support in this case, into a wave-4c. (see Chart/D). The trader is best served by adhering to 1x4HR triggers.

Chart/E now shows the trend extension, and its projections that the trader will be implementing a Cycle/3 strategy on.

Now to actual trade Management

Confirming a Cycle/3 Trend on 1&4HR

Chart/F shows the 4HR Cci trending <-100 for about a 1-month duration.

The Chart marks where the 100 period Cci on the 1&4 HRs run in confluence below <-100, (dark red zones), and where the Cci on the 1HR  diverges (moves higher > -100) from that running on the 4HR.

Because 1HR momentum retractions are contained by the 4HR negative momentum run, Trend continuation is Confirmed.

Shorts can be continually engaged for the whole period, and a fine-tuned 1x4 HR momentum confluence (Cycle/3+4) strategy can be used. 

Chart/G marks zones where 1HR momentum rises >-100, (grey arrows). The Chart also records where 1HR momentum records positive values > +100 levels (yellow arrows), (see-Chart/G), All such instances  do not record any rise in momentum on the 4-HR frame >-100 or at -100, Chart/F.  

On Chart/G, and as already illustrated in the past example, Rises > -100, in 1HR momentum get contained at or below 1HR pivots in the index value. – See Chart/G.  

Whereas Rises > -100, in 1HR momentum that break above  > +100, or gyrate in a prolonged histogram between zero & +100 lvls, record higher degree corrections, in the structure relating to the higher degree Elliot channel (a leading diagonal in this case), and get contained at or below (R2) on the 1HR chart, and definitely below a higher degree wave-i /(1) – if the trend is to continue. (Tenant for trend continuation - Elliot). See Chart/H.

Such a higher degree correction (positive momentum on the 1HR frame), will trigger a hedge to open once the “fixed Risk Pitch” is violated on the 15-min chart.

The level of hedge engagement is usually on breach of a wave(iii) /(3) on the 1HR frame, and the breach fails at a level of wave(i) / 1 of the motive wave– See Chart/H

ENTRIES & PROFITS - (Cycle/4)

Because the trader is confirmed of an extension in trend continuation through consistent momentum extending below -100 on the 4HR Frame. There arises a trade opportunity to sell the pivot (p) on the 1Hr, and resistance pivots related to that zone on the 15Min frame, and take profits on the next lower pivot (S1) on the 1HR frame. – See Chart/I.

A stop or hedge order to counter protect the short entry is placed at trader’s discretion, one resistance level above entry level.

On the shown example, 2 trades are achieved over a 12-day duration. The win rate is 100%. (See Chart/J). Such trades are typical trading of a Cycle/4 into a trending Cycle/3, or for simplicity :- Trading a Cycle/4+3. Note that during the trade 4+3 duration, cycle /3 trades also trigger, compounding the profits made on the move.

Similarly, because the trader is confirmed of an extension in trend continuation on the 4HR Frame. There also arises a trade opportunity to sell the (R2) on the 1Hr, and resistance pivots related to that zone on the 15Min frame, during a higher degree correction. Take profits at the next lower pivot (S1) on the 1HR frame. – See Chart/K.

Note that in this case, because a hedge had been opened to protect already held (running) shorts, this hedge gets closed at break even once a trigger effects again on the 1HR frame.

Another stop or hedge order to counter protect the short entry is placed one resistance level above entry level.

On the shown example,(Chart/K) one trade is achieved over a 10-day duration. The win rate is 100%.Note that during this 4+3 trade duration, cycle /3 trades also trigger, compounding the profits made on the move. 

Pragmatic entries can also be taken and recurred several times a day in a typical cycle/3 strategy previously explained.

These are shown on Chart/L. On the shown example, 7 trades are achieved over a 12-day duration. The win rate is 100%

High Risk Investment Warning: 

Financial products are traded on margin, and carry an extremely high degree of risk. It is very possible to lose all your capital trading them. Financial Products such CFDs (Contracts for Price Difference) are considered some of the most volatile and risky of financial assets, and as such will NOT be suitable for everyone to trade. More importantly, CFDs are derivative products of, / (and are) impacted by several financial issues and asset classes. Several complex fundamentals become intertwined. And it becomes very hard, even for professionals to assess and acutely understand ALL the risks involved. Under volatile market conditions, Losses could well exceed the account’s initial deposits. Please think very carefully whether such trading portfolios' suit you. Take into consideration all of your relevant circumstances and personal resources, and DO NOT POST your entire account balance to meet margin requirements. Clients can minimize their level of risk exposure by requesting a change in leverage limits. For more information on this please refer to your broker’s Risk Disclosure. Further, do not wavier seeking independent expert and legal advice on trading issues and their suitability to yr geographical location. 

DISCLAIMER:-   

TRADER PSYCHOLOGY - PLEASE TAKE VERY SERIOUSLY

PLEASE CONSIDER THIS WARNING VERY CAREFULLY EVERY TIME YOU READ & STUDY THIS DOCUMENT

The information and illustrated examples elaborated on this document, are for educational purposes only. It should not be assumed that methods, techniques, or indicators presented will always be profitable, and will NOT result in losses. Past results are not a typical setting for future ones. The contents of this document solely represent the publisher’s, experience and findings.

ANY & ALL indication(s) given here have the following inherent limitations:-

1- Trading Analysis is based on the benefit of hindsight, mistakes are seen beforehand & filtered out. Before making decisions based on such analysis, the reader must acutely scrutinize and conduct all possible due diligence, including- but not limited to- seeking independent expert advise.

2- Representation that any account will or likely achieve profits should be diligently and responsibly downplayed . In reality, factors such as the fear of losing, generate neural tensions. These cause closing profitable positions prematurely during gains, and cloud a traders’ judgment during losses, causing the holding of losses, and crippling draw downs. This behavior is typical when users change from a demonstration account to a real one. And as a fact is never forcefully documented by the majority of  brokers.

3- Readers are advised to take seriously the psychology involved in the behavioral aspects associated with taking  high trading risks. Any trade made, at some point, will get tested, the trader will experience losses and question his motives for the trade. If the trade is over leveraged, it will lead to high exposure, and severe draw downs. The trader will be frightened, and despair, dumping the position, under severe stresses, at the very worst time. Volatility leads to rash impulsive decisions. And decisions become irrationally driven by fears, the more volatile a portfolio becomes. Hence, it is said that trading is NOT for everyone.

4- Because of the above, only the reader carries the sole responsibility for all the businesses or investments he /she will be carrying  out or conducting in his / her name(s), regardless of using ideas or material they viewed  / copied / read here or any where else. The publisher(s) will not be held liable in any capacity over losses incurred by readers, stemming from their own actions.

5- Finally, Due to all above listed & more, a consensus of over 70% of retail Forex traders lose money trading or barely break even.

CONFIRMING A SECULAR TREND

The current example, starts with the trader getting alerted of a trending issue on the daily time frame to implement  a cycle/3+4 strategy on. 

Chart/A shows the USD/JPY, which has been trending since Oct-2021 till August 2022. (10-month). 

On 2^nd August 2022, (1st yellow vertical dashed line on Chart/A), the trader can attempt to implement a Cycle/4 entry into the daily secular trend, Knowing that Taking a cycle/4 into this issue, is almost guaranteed to mature into a cycle/3 trend due to the extension showing on the daily. 

This proves true as the resulting extension carries on till the 27th of October. (2nd yellow vertical dashed line on Chart/A).  

IDENTIFYING CYCLES/3&4

Chart/B marks where Cci (100) on the 4HR is trading close to & > (100) (Green Box outs).

Chart/C marks the Cci (100) on the 1HR chart during the same time duration.

Note that where the Cci (100) on 1HR is at or >(100) – (as marked out by the grey vertical dashed lines on Chart/C), a cycle/3 trade strategy would have been implemented as marked out on the 4HR (Chart/B).

Chart/C also shows where a Cycle/4 interrupts Cycle/3 trend continuation. (yellow dashed ellipse). Here 1HR Cci runs <100 & >-100, but the 4HR Cci remains positive at and slightly below 100.

TRADING A CYCLE/4

Chart/D displays the entries made into a Cycle/4 interrupting a Cycle/3

1- Entries are taken down on a daily basis to pivot / S1 levels on the 1HR frame. Such daily entries are further fine-tuned to correspond with S1 / S2 levels on the 15 Min frame.

2- This enables taking profits in a recurring manner at Pivot levels & between pivot & R1 on the 15 Min frame.

3- When the market breaks below the calculated fixed risk pitch on the 15 Min frame a hedge is opened by a sell stop, with profits taken on the hedge one support level below entry – (Chart/D)

4- The trader is able to guarantee trading a trend continuation generated between a Cycle/3 & Cycle/4 & Cycle/3 over a 2-month duration in this manner.

5- The compounding of profits this generates, and account management analytics are detailed on Chart /E.

High Risk Investment Warning: 

Financial products are traded on margin, and carry an extremely high degree of risk. It is very possible to lose all your capital trading them. Financial Products such CFDs (Contracts for Price Difference) are considered some of the most volatile and risky of financial assets, and as such will NOT be suitable for everyone to trade. More importantly, CFDs are derivative products of, / (and are) impacted by several financial issues and asset classes. Several complex fundamentals become intertwined. And it becomes very hard, even for professionals to assess and acutely understand ALL the risks involved. Under volatile market conditions, Losses could well exceed the account’s initial deposits. Please think very carefully whether such trading portfolios' suit you. Take into consideration all of your relevant circumstances and personal resources, and DO NOT POST your entire account balance to meet margin requirements. Clients can minimize their level of risk exposure by requesting a change in leverage limits. For more information on this please refer to your broker’s Risk Disclosure. Further, do not wavier seeking independent expert and legal advice on trading issues and their suitability to yr geographical location. 

DISCLAIMER:-   

TRADER PSYCHOLOGY - PLEASE TAKE VERY SERIOUSLY

PLEASE CONSIDER THIS WARNING VERY CAREFULLY EVERY TIME YOU READ & STUDY THIS DOCUMENT

The information and illustrated examples elaborated on this document, are for educational purposes only. It should not be assumed that methods, techniques, or indicators presented will always be profitable, and will NOT result in losses. Past results are not a typical setting for future ones. The contents of this document solely represent the publisher’s, experience and findings.

ANY & ALL indication(s) given here have the following inherent limitations:-

1- Trading Analysis is based on the benefit of hindsight, mistakes are seen beforehand & filtered out. Before making decisions based on such analysis, the reader must acutely scrutinize and conduct all possible due diligence, including- but not limited to- seeking independent expert advise.

2- Representation that any account will or likely achieve profits should be diligently and responsibly downplayed . In reality, factors such as the fear of losing, generate neural tensions. These cause closing profitable positions prematurely during gains, and cloud a traders’ judgment during losses, causing the holding of losses, and crippling draw downs. This behavior is typical when users change from a demonstration account to a real one. And as a fact is never forcefully documented by the majority of  brokers.

3- Readers are advised to take seriously the psychology involved in the behavioral aspects associated with taking  high trading risks. Any trade made, at some point, will get tested, the trader will experience losses and question his motives for the trade. If the trade is over leveraged, it will lead to high exposure, and severe draw downs. The trader will be frightened, and despair, dumping the position, under severe stresses, at the very worst time. Volatility leads to rash impulsive decisions. And decisions become irrationally driven by fears, the more volatile a portfolio becomes. Hence, it is said that trading is NOT for everyone.

4- Because of the above, only the reader carries the sole responsibility for all the businesses or investments he /she will be carrying  out or conducting in his / her name(s), regardless of using ideas or material they viewed  / copied / read here or any where else. The publisher(s) will not be held liable in any capacity over losses incurred by readers, stemming from their own actions.

5- Finally, Due to all above listed & more, a consensus of over 70% of retail Forex traders lose money trading or barely break even.